The upcoming release of Grand Theft Auto VI has the potential to be a game-changer for the console market, according to industry analyst Mat Piscatella. Piscatella argues that GTA 6 could finally convince holdouts on the PS4 and Xbox One to make the switch to current-gen consoles. Despite the PS5 being on the market for 3.5 years, there is still a significant number of active users on the PS4, as highlighted by a chart from Sony. This data shows that PS5 users are logging more gameplay hours than their PS4 counterparts, indicating a need for Sony to transition its user base to the newer console.
Piscatella suggests that the slow transition from old-gen consoles to current-gen may be due to what he calls “black hole games.” These are cross-generation games with massive player bases, such as Fortnite, Minecraft, Roblox, and Call of Duty, that keep players invested in older hardware. He points out that games like GTAV make it easy for players to stick with their legacy consoles rather than upgrading. The question now is how many GTAV players will make the transition to GTA 6 on current-gen consoles.
As the sequel to the best-selling video game of all time, GTA 6 has the potential to drive a significant shift in the console landscape. With no announced PC version and being a current-gen exclusive, GTA 6 could be the key driver in pushing players to make the leap to PS5 and Xbox Series X. Both Sony and Microsoft are likely eager to see more of their user base transition to the latest hardware. While Xbox’s hardware priorities are also focused on migrating users to the Series X/S, GTA 6 could be the catalyst for moving on from last-gen consoles for good.
Even with rumors of a PS5 Pro on the horizon, Piscatella believes that it may not have a significant impact on console adoption. He argues that iterative consoles like the Pro models are mostly targeted at early adopters and deep enthusiasts. While a PS5 Pro may attract those who preordered the original PS5, it may not be enough to sway a large number of users to upgrade. Speculation about an Xbox equivalent is less prevalent, but a hardware refresh for both platforms seems inevitable in the future.
The release of GTA 6 has the potential to shake up the console market and drive more users to upgrade to current-gen consoles. With its status as a highly anticipated game and being a current-gen exclusive, GTA 6 could be the push needed to move players away from legacy consoles. Both Sony and Microsoft will be closely watching the impact of GTA 6 on console adoption and may potentially see a shift in their user bases as a result.
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